What is the effective date of the USMCA? Can it still fail?

As of November 2018, the USMCA also known as the New NAFTA 2.0 agreement or United States Mexico Canada Agreement is not yet law. 

The United States, Mexico and Canada have created a tentative deal and they are attempting to sign the deal before the Mexican President, Enrique Peña Nieto, leaves office Dec 01, 2018.

WHAT HAS TO HAPPEN BEFORE USMCA iS EFFECTIVE?

1. As mentioned earlier, the three countries need to sign the deal before December 01, 2018.

2. For the US, in July 2019 the Senate will vote on the USMCA (TN Visa) Bill and decide its fate.

3. For Canada, Trudeau still needs to defend this agreement in front of the House of Commons. The House of Commons will vote on it and it will need to pass. Then it is sent to the Canadian Senate and debated. The Senate must also pass the bill. Prime Minister will attempt to do this and get it passed before October 2019.

4.  For Mexico, the process is quite quick once the President signs the deal before leaving office on December 01, 2018.

If the USMCA or new NAFTA 2.0 is not passed by any of the countries parliamentary process, the leaders will need to meet and discuss. There is a risk this may happen which can cause the USMCA effective date to be later than planned.

WHEN IS THE PLANNED USMCA EFFECTIVE DATE?

If everything goes well, the three leaders have agreed to enact this agreement January 2020. Some parts of the agreement come into effect at a later date. But January 2020 is the date to remember.